@InProceedings{LefebvreNeSoToSiSc:2002:ImSoWa,
author = "Lefebvre, Paul and Nepstad, Daniel and Solorzano, Luis and
Tomasella, Javier and Silva, Urbano and Schlesinger, Peter",
title = "An improved soil water budget model for predicting drought
stress-related forest flammability in the Amazon Basin",
year = "2002",
organization = "International LBA Scientific Conference, 2.",
keywords = "METEOROLOGIA.",
abstract = "The RisQue (Risco de Queimadas)spatial model of flammability based
on soil moisture stocks, under development since 1998, continues
to evolve. The soil map of maximum Plant Available Water (PAW),
based on soil texture information from over 1,500 field samples,
has been expanded from the Brazilian Legal Amazon region to cover
the entire Amazon hydrographic basin. Enhanced meteorological data
provided by CPTEC now cover this same region, and Penman-Monteith
estimated Potential Evapotranspiration has superseded previous
estimates calculated after Thornthwaite, using GOES-derived
radiation fields. All spatial interpolation is now done via
Kriging. The vegetation mask, used to constrain deep soil water
estimations for forests only, has been updated to reflect recent
deforestation, and the spatial resolution has improved.
Sensitivity of the model to Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration
estimates were analyzed by running the model with ET at -15
percent, -5 percent and + 15 percent of actual estimates. A 5
percent reduction in ET resulted in a 60 percent decrease in the
area of depleted soil moisture stocks, and a 38 percent decrease
in the area of stocks diminished to less than 250mm of water in a
10m column of soil. 5 percent increase in ET resulted in a
two-fold increase in area of depleted soil moisture stocks, and a
38 percent increase in the are suffering depletion to less than
250mm. We find fair agreement between model output and field
measurements of plant-available soil water to 10 m depth, with
actual soil moisture measured using TDR at our field stations in
the FLONA Tapaj{\'o}s and in Paragominas; average model estimates
of soil water stocks averaged19 percent lower than field
measurements for the FLONA Tapaj{\'o}s, and 8 percent lower for
Paragominas.",
conference-location = "Manaus, Br",
conference-year = "7-10 July 2002",
label = "10234",
targetfile = "9315.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "11 maio 2024"
}